By 2018 global mobile data traffic will increase 11-fold and hit an annual run rate of 190 exabytes, according to a new data forecast from Cisco. The report puts monthly mobile data usage at 2.6 exabytes for 2014 and predicts that usage will increase more than six-fold by 2018 when global mobile traffic climbs to 15.9 exabytes monthly.
The study attributes the growth to the rising numbers of mobile internet connections, including M2M, as well as personal devices. Cisco estimates the total will exceed 10 billion connections by 2018, nearly 1.5 times the amount of people on Earth (based on UN population predictions).
Cisco also sees the number of global mobile users increasing from 4.1 billion in 2013 to 4.9 billion in 2018, and average mobile data connection speeds will go up from 1.4 Mbps in 2013 to 2.5 Mbps by 2018.
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Small cell’s spatial efficiency and lower TCO, coupled with Magnolia Broadband's beam forming technology solutions are key to alleviating the mobile data crunch. According Cooper’s Law that underpinned the recent 3GPP workshop on how to best grow capacity, small cells offered the best return, offering a 56x improvement versus 6x for spectrum efficiency and 3x for additional spectrum. When incorporating Magnolia Broadband’s beamforming technology solutions, these improvements are even further enhanced.
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With the growth in data consumption, connected devices, and mobile applications, carriers need to address The “3 C’s – Capacity, Coverage, Congestion.” The sheer volume of mobile data traffic growth is driving capacity constraints. Coverage issues are arising due to the need for indoor coverage and the fact that 4G base stations cover a smaller area effectively. Coverage needs are also being driven by demand in rural and emerging markets. Congestion issues are being driven by the number of devices connecting to the network at any one time and the amount of signaling traffic driven by mobile applications. In order to address The 3 C’s multiple solutions are coming to market including additional spectrum, spectrum efficiency, mobile content delivery, small cells plus Magnolia Broadband’s solutions, which offers emhancement for all solutions while resulting in enhancing the overall subscriber experience..
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Data continues to be a major area of growth for mobile operators. As Cisco reported in their recent Visual Networking Index (VNI) study6, the volume of mobile broadband (MBB) traffic has been doubling every year, reaching 1,577 Petabytes per month7 in 2013 (the equivalent of 500 billion .mp3 files or 800 million hours of streaming HD video8) and is forecast to reach 11,156 Petabytes by 2017. The rate of growth is underlined by the fact that total traffic volumes in 2012 were as high as all prior years combined. Furthermore, this growth hasn’t been isolated to one area – all regions have been showing impressive growth rates. In absolute terms, however, Asia Pacific is the clear leader and is forecast to account for 47% of traffic by 2017.
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ENGLEWOOD, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Magnolia Broadband, the inventor of Adaptive Antenna Systems (AAS), a “Beam-forming” technology for wireless smartphones and tablets, said today it has secured $3 million in funding from individual and institutional investors, led by SCP Partners. Magnolia Broadband will use the funding for further development of its AAS technologies for smartphones, tablets, small 3G/4G base stations and Wi-Fi access points.
Osmo Hautanen, Magnolia Broadband’s CEO, said, “With global mobile data traffic forecasted to increase 26-fold over the next 5 years driven by video and multi-media data traffic, Magnolia Broadband’s solutions provide enhanced real time HD video and multimedia experiences which will broaden the range of applications and services that can be shared, creating a highly enhanced mobile broadband experience.” Hautanen added, “SCP Partners has been an outstanding supporter of Magnolia Broadband since its inception. With this additional capital, Magnolia Broadband will further solidify its leadership position by expanding its patent portfolio and advance licensing efforts with wireless network operators around the globe.”
“Magnolia Broadband has been on the forefront of developing technologies which offer significant benefits for both wireless carriers and consumers on quality of service providing faster data throughput, better coverage and wider range both on macro wireless networks as well as Wi-Fi coverage areas," said Yaron Eitan, Chairman of the Board of Magnolia Broadband, Inc., and a Partner at SCP Partners, the company’s largest shareholder, and President of Selway Capital. Furthermore he added, “Magnolia Broadband’s technologies have been valued by leading companies such as Google which acquired over 50 of its patents in 2012.”
http://eon.businesswire.com/news/eon/20130708006316/en/Magnolia-Broadband/SCP-Partners
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- As we close out the first quarter of 2013, we see that smartphone data consumption at some operators is averaging close to 1 GB/mo. Some devices are averaging close to 2 GB/mo. As we move into 1GB range along with the family data plans kicking in, you can expect the data tiers to get bigger both in GBs and dollar amount.
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Wireless data traffic is expected to grow 66% a year for the next five years. That means, by 2017, monthly mobile data traffic will reach 11.2 exabytes per month, or 13 times what it is right now. Other data points in the report underscore how big the mobile world has become and how quickly it will grow to be much, much bigger. Last year, some 4.3 billion people around the world had mobile devices, a population that will grow by close to a billion in five years.
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Two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2017. Mobile video will increase 16-fold between 2012 and 2017, accounting for over 66 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of the forecast period.
Mobile-connected tablets will generate more traffic in 2017 than the entire global mobile network in 2012. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2017 (1.3 exabytes per month) will be 1.5 times higher than the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2012 (885 petabytes per month).
The average smartphone will generate 2.7 GB of traffic per month in 2017, an 8-fold increase over the 2012 average of 342 MB per month. Aggregate smartphone traffic in 2017 will be 19 times greater than it is today, with a CAGR of 81 percent.
By 2017, almost 21 exabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to the fixed network by means of Wi-Fi devices and femtocells each month. Without Wi-Fi and femtocell offload, total mobile data traffic would grow at a CAGR of 74 percent between 2012 and 2017 (16-fold growth), instead of the projected CAGR of 66 percent (13-fold growth).
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Global mobile data traffic grew 70 percent in 2012. Global mobile data traffic reached 885 petabytes per month at the end of 2012, up from 520 petabytes per month at the end of 2011.
Mobile network connection speeds more than doubled in 2012. Globally, the average mobile network downstream speed in 2012 was 526 kilobits per second (kbps), up from 248 kbps in 2011. The average mobile network connection speed for smartphones in 2012 was 2,064 kbps, up from 1,211 kbps in 2011. The average mobile network connection speed for tablets in 2012 was 3,683 kbps, up from 2,030 kbps in 2011.
In 2012, a fourth-generation (4G) connection generated 19 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection. Although 4G connections represent only 0.9 percent of mobile connections today, they already account for 14 percent of mobile data traffic.
The top 1 percent of mobile data subscribers generate 16 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 52 percent at the beginning of 2010. According to a mobile data usage study conducted by Cisco, mobile data traffic has evened out over the last year and is now lower than the 1:20 ratio that has been true of fixed networks for several years.
Average smartphone usage grew 81 percent in 2012. The average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2012 was 342 MB per month, up from 189 MB per month in 2011.
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Today’s consumers are increasingly demanding not only always-on connectivity, but better service quality and overall experiences. In fact, nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of respondents to Yankee Group’s 2012 US Consumer Survey, December, state that mobile data speeds are important to them and almost the same number (63 percent) want to be connected all the time.
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If you think we’ve got Big Data problems now—with “only” about 9 billion devices connected to the Internet—what’s the situation going to be like when that number soars to 50 billion at the end of the decade?
Oracle president Mark Hurd recently raised the possibility that unless businesses and government agencies can seize control over that Big Data explosion, then they’ll run the risk of simply being overwhelmed by vast volumes of data that they can’t find, control, manage, or secure—let alone analyze and exploit.
As a ZD.net article reported:
Hurd said that the world was “drowning” in vast amounts of data — which has grown eightfold in the past seven years — and companies are running out of space to store it all. With more than nine billion existing devices connected to the Internet, end businesses are struggling to cope with storing the vast amounts of data they collect.
Not only will the capacity for storage need to increase, he warned of a growing concern is the ability to store such vast amounts of data securely. Another growing problem is the ability to process the vast amount of data through data process or real-time analytics.
Indeed—what happens when that already-tricky situation is compounded dramatically as an additional 40 billion devices get connected to the Internet over the next several years and begin streaming out massive volumes of data about speeds and location and performance degradation and volume of usage and even such vital but narrowly focused applications such as whether or not your morning coffee is ready?
To help understand some of those implications, a new study commissioned by Oracle outlines some of the impacts those billions of devices will have on the data demands of businesses and other large organizations—and if we think our challenges today are best described as “Big Data,” just wait.
Drilling into this wild new world of machine-to-machine (M2M) data, the study—called “Designing an M2M Platform for the Connected World”—says that “M2M data from remotely located assets and devices in the field is increasingly being used more broadly for strategic purposes and value creation throughout the enterprise. It has also become a means for creating new market opportunities while providing a competitive advantage for enterprise users in their own key markets.”
I recall coming across an early discussion of this general phenomenon about 12 years ago when RFID technology first began to offer the promise of cost-efficient data streams and intelligence-gathering from machines.
While many big retailers, consumer-packaged-goods companies, and logistics companies initially expressed great interest in RFID technologies, their immediate concern was how in the world would they ever be able to manage the unprecedently massive streams of data emanating from these new networks of things.
Imagine that possibility cranked up exponentially as everything from mobile phones to shoes to cars and household appliances, from pets to smart meters to clothing and surgical devices, from heavy industrial equipment to security devices to assembly lines become stuffed with intelligence and begin spewing out digital records of what they’re doing, seeing, sensing, and shipping.
In commissioning its study about how businesses can take full advantage of this dynamic new world, Oracle sought to shed some light on the requirements for turning machine-to-machine raw data into actionable intelligence, along with an eye toward how those demands might shift over time.
Beecham Research found that because most early adopters of M2M technologies and solutions are looking to create new services built on these new data streams, top-priority initiatives have to be end-to-end security that ranges from the device all the way through to the data center and the end-consumer of the data; and, the need for these massive flows of data to be integreated fully with existing IT systems in ways that allow the data to be analyzed and transformed into business insights.
As a result, the study says, companies should pursue these initiatives with an eye toward launching innovative products and services: “Although data storage requirements for M2M solutions have often not been huge in the past, this is changing with very large volumes of data expected in the future. In addition, insight from real-time intelligence can open up a whole new world of solutions.”
Along the way, the M2M movement is expected to join forces with another disruptive force in the IT world: cloud computing.
Survey respondents from around the world said that “Leveraging the cloud was noted as key in M2M projects, as it greatly reduces the cost and complexity of delivering M2M solutions,” Oracle said. “In fact, 90 percent of respondents noted the cloud as being ‘vitally important’ to M2M initiatives.”
Tech companies hoping to play a role in this dynamic new field will have to determine whether they want to be niche players that require extensive integration with other vendors’ equipment, or if they want to try to play a broader role that allows customers to focus more on business outcomes and less on cobbling together various point solutions.